In reaction to the news that the FOMC would be keeping its benchmark interest rates exceptionally low for some time, the greenback slide against both the Euro and the Yen.
In addition, despite signs that the U.S housing market was beginning to recover, sales of New Homes fell to its lowest level on record- further fueling the dollar’s decline against its major currency counterparts.
Purchases of new homes within the U.S tumbled below expectations to an annual pace of 309,000, signaling that the added extension of the government tax credit may not be enough to revive demand.
This report further highlights Fed. Chairman Bernanke’s prior comments that even though the economic situation of the U.S is making a promising recovery, homebuilders continue to face intense competition from foreclosed properties that are continually driving down the prices in the market, while at the same time robbing the demand for new homes.
The result of which causes a chain reaction –decrease sales of new homes leads to a decrease in demand for construction, thus a decreased amount of employees in that field – directly effecting the level of employment for the country.
Following the release of Bernanke’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, and pessimistic U.S. Home Sales data - the U.S dollar plunged against its major counterparts. The EUR/USD broke a session high at 1.36250, and closed at 1.35371, up 0.18% from the day’s opening price at the Forex online market.
Today is the second half of Bernanke’s testimony of Congress; in addition, the U.S will release the Unemployment claims for last week, expected to drop to 461K, from the previous week’s 473K joblessness claims. Also out today (1330GMT), the monthly Core Durable Goods Order.
Orders have been revised to the upside in the past month, from 0.3% to 1%; while, Core orders have been revised to 1.4%. The positive trend is expected to continue, with a rise a rise of 1.6% in orders and 1.2% in core orders. This figure doesn’t touch the consumers, but has a long term impact on the economy.
Greenback sliding against the EUR and the Yen
In reaction to the news that the FOMC would be keeping its benchmark interest rates exceptionally low for some time, the greenback slide against both the Euro and the Yen.
In addition, despite signs that the U.S housing market was beginning to recover, sales of New Homes fell to its lowest level on record- further fueling the dollar’s decline against its major currency counterparts.
Purchases of new homes within the U.S tumbled below expectations to an annual pace of 309,000, signaling that the added extension of the government tax credit may not be enough to revive demand.
This report further highlights Fed. Chairman Bernanke’s prior comments that even though the economic situation of the U.S is making a promising recovery, homebuilders continue to face intense competition from foreclosed properties that are continually driving down the prices in the market, while at the same time robbing the demand for new homes.
The result of which causes a chain reaction –decrease sales of new homes leads to a decrease in demand for construction, thus a decreased amount of employees in that field – directly effecting the level of employment for the country.
Following the release of Bernanke’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, and pessimistic U.S. Home Sales data - the U.S dollar plunged against its major counterparts. The EUR/USD broke a session high at 1.36250, and closed at 1.35371, up 0.18% from the day’s opening price at the Forex online market.
Today is the second half of Bernanke’s testimony of Congress; in addition, the U.S will release the Unemployment claims for last week, expected to drop to 461K, from the previous week’s 473K joblessness claims. Also out today (1330GMT), the monthly Core Durable Goods Order.
Orders have been revised to the upside in the past month, from 0.3% to 1%; while, Core orders have been revised to 1.4%. The positive trend is expected to continue, with a rise a rise of 1.6% in orders and 1.2% in core orders. This figure doesn’t touch the consumers, but has a long term impact on the economy.
In addition, despite signs that the U.S housing market was beginning to recover, sales of New Homes fell to its lowest level on record- further fueling the dollar’s decline against its major currency counterparts.
Purchases of new homes within the U.S tumbled below expectations to an annual pace of 309,000, signaling that the added extension of the government tax credit may not be enough to revive demand.
This report further highlights Fed. Chairman Bernanke’s prior comments that even though the economic situation of the U.S is making a promising recovery, homebuilders continue to face intense competition from foreclosed properties that are continually driving down the prices in the market, while at the same time robbing the demand for new homes.
The result of which causes a chain reaction –decrease sales of new homes leads to a decrease in demand for construction, thus a decreased amount of employees in that field – directly effecting the level of employment for the country.
Following the release of Bernanke’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, and pessimistic U.S. Home Sales data - the U.S dollar plunged against its major counterparts. The EUR/USD broke a session high at 1.36250, and closed at 1.35371, up 0.18% from the day’s opening price at the Forex online market.
Today is the second half of Bernanke’s testimony of Congress; in addition, the U.S will release the Unemployment claims for last week, expected to drop to 461K, from the previous week’s 473K joblessness claims. Also out today (1330GMT), the monthly Core Durable Goods Order.
Orders have been revised to the upside in the past month, from 0.3% to 1%; while, Core orders have been revised to 1.4%. The positive trend is expected to continue, with a rise a rise of 1.6% in orders and 1.2% in core orders. This figure doesn’t touch the consumers, but has a long term impact on the economy.
The Pound is tumbling down against the Greenback
After a relatively slow end to last month, the forex online market is set to be hit with a fresh wave of volatility within the next few days, as the month of March kicks off with four central bank’s rate announcements.
Yesterday the Canadian Dollar surged against its American counterpart, on the back of higher than anticipated GDP. The GDP beat expectations and rose by an annualized 4.0% in the fourth quarter of last year fueled by an increase in retail sales, consumer spending, exports and robust housing sector. The USD/CAD plummeted from a session highs of 1.0575 to hit a new session low of 1.0475. The loonie appreciated a total of 1.04% yesterday against its U.S counterpart, to close at $1.04106.
Across the Atlantic, the pound tumbled to a new 10 month low as fears continue to grow that the UK will have a hung parliament. The currency fell 1.6% against the greenback, dropping below the $1.5 mark, for first time since May, as the Labor party’s majority narrows. The Pound suffered across the board sliding to its lowest level against the Euro since early last December, as well as hit a one-year low against the Japanese Yen of 132.07 and plumbed its weakest in 25 years against the high-yielding Australian Dollar.
Despite a better than expected manufacturing PMI, the Pound brushed the news that the manufacturing sector remained at its previously reported 15 year high of 56.6. Out later today, the construction PMI is predicted to show to that house price have continued to rise in the last seven months, however, the rate of increase is expected to have slowed from 0.6% in January to 0.3% in February.
In Anticipation of BOE and ECB's rate decission
Early this morning, Germany released its monthly retail sales report. Despite a predicted drop of 0.5%, retail sales were unexpectedly stable for January, while December gains were revised upwards modestly- fueling hopes that consumer supported recovery may emerge within the coming months. This will be followed by the publication of the entire Euro Zone’s monthly retail sales for January, predicted to show a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month. With no other important news coming out for the rest of the day, investors will turn their attention to tomorrow’s impeding ECB rate announcement. Once again, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, is expected to maintain the minimum bid rate at its current record low level of 1.0%.
The ECB’s rate decision will be preceded the Bank of England’s announcement of its overnight rate. The BoE is expected to keep its key lending rate at its current record low level, despite signs that Britain is emerging from the recession at a faster pace than previously anticipated. While the country’s GDP may have grown 0.3% (revised) for the fourth quarter of last year, analysts predict that it is highly unlikely that the central bank will opt to exit its “easy” monetary policy so quickly.
Yesterday, the Sterling plunged to a new 10 month low against the greenback in the forex online market as speculation continued to increase that neither the Labor nor the Conservative party would win an outright majority in Parliament in the coming June election- obstructing efforts to cut the country’s historically high budget deficit. After slipping 1.045% on Monday (at one point diving a record 3% to a $1.4784, its lowest level since April 2009), the GBP continued to fall against its American counterpart yesterday – deprecating an additional 0.2314%, to close at $1.49607.
Despite increasing chances of a “hung” parliament in addition to a plummeting currency, U.K consumer confidence jumped in February to a two-year high. The index of consumer sentiment increased 6 points from the previous month, to a new level of 80.
Yesterday, the U.K released its construction PMI, showing a fall from its previous level of 48.6 to 48.5 (a number greater than 50.0 indicates expansion, while number below shows contraction). Early this morning (930GMT), the U.K will release its Service PMI- while this report is the last PMI for the week, it is the most important. The service sector, which includes the financial sector, was improving up until last month. After falling to 54.5, analysts predict a slight increase of 0.5 points this month, to a new level of 55.0.
The U.S dollar weakened across the board, falling against 15 of its 16 major currency counterparts, following the release of the Bank of Dallas Fed Chairman’s statement that borrowing costs should continue to remain low until the economy picks up- which according to him “won’t happen for some time”.
Later today (1315GMT), the U.S will release its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. While generally considered a predictive index for Friday’s highly anticipated Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, the ADP is expected to show a drop of 15K. With Payrolls have declined in 24 out of the past 25 months and economists are predicting another decline of 40,000 in February.
The ECB’s rate decision will be preceded the Bank of England’s announcement of its overnight rate. The BoE is expected to keep its key lending rate at its current record low level, despite signs that Britain is emerging from the recession at a faster pace than previously anticipated. While the country’s GDP may have grown 0.3% (revised) for the fourth quarter of last year, analysts predict that it is highly unlikely that the central bank will opt to exit its “easy” monetary policy so quickly.
Yesterday, the Sterling plunged to a new 10 month low against the greenback in the forex online market as speculation continued to increase that neither the Labor nor the Conservative party would win an outright majority in Parliament in the coming June election- obstructing efforts to cut the country’s historically high budget deficit. After slipping 1.045% on Monday (at one point diving a record 3% to a $1.4784, its lowest level since April 2009), the GBP continued to fall against its American counterpart yesterday – deprecating an additional 0.2314%, to close at $1.49607.
Despite increasing chances of a “hung” parliament in addition to a plummeting currency, U.K consumer confidence jumped in February to a two-year high. The index of consumer sentiment increased 6 points from the previous month, to a new level of 80.
Yesterday, the U.K released its construction PMI, showing a fall from its previous level of 48.6 to 48.5 (a number greater than 50.0 indicates expansion, while number below shows contraction). Early this morning (930GMT), the U.K will release its Service PMI- while this report is the last PMI for the week, it is the most important. The service sector, which includes the financial sector, was improving up until last month. After falling to 54.5, analysts predict a slight increase of 0.5 points this month, to a new level of 55.0.
The U.S dollar weakened across the board, falling against 15 of its 16 major currency counterparts, following the release of the Bank of Dallas Fed Chairman’s statement that borrowing costs should continue to remain low until the economy picks up- which according to him “won’t happen for some time”.
Later today (1315GMT), the U.S will release its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. While generally considered a predictive index for Friday’s highly anticipated Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, the ADP is expected to show a drop of 15K. With Payrolls have declined in 24 out of the past 25 months and economists are predicting another decline of 40,000 in February.
foreign exchange market
forex, FX, or currency market) is a worldwide decentralized over-the-counter financial market for the trading of currencies. Financial centers around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends.
The purpose of the foreign exchange market 'Forex' is to assist international trade and investment. The foreign exchange market allows businesses to convert one currency to another foreign currency. For example, it permits a U.S. business to import European goods and pay Euros, even though the business's income is in U.S. dollars. Some experts, however, believe that the unchecked speculative movement of currencies by large financial institutions such as hedge funds impedes the markets from correcting global current account imbalances. This carry trade may also lead to loss of competitiveness in some countries. [1]
In a typical foreign exchange transaction a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market started forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
Forex News Trading
Traders on the Foreign Exchange market, Forex market for short, can potentially make thousands of dollars based on the volatility and fluctuations of a country’s currency. To better themselves and have a leading advantage over other traders, some Forex traders and investors participate in a practice known as news trading. The risks are very high, but the potential gains can be worth thousands of dollars and many traders and investors use this technique.
The technique of news trading is quite simple. It is the trading of foreign currency immediately before or after an important economic news announcement. After such announcements, there is a high possibility that market prices will fluctuate, either for the better or worse, depending on the announcement. For example, if the U. S. Federal Reserve announces another increase of the interest rate, many traders might invest in the U.S. dollar as it is expected that its value will appreciate. The main advantage of news trading is the potential for a country’s currency to make huge gains or losses in very little time. Within minutes of an economic announcement, a country’s currency can gain or lose one hundred points almost instantly. The potential of huge profits attracts Foreign Exchange traders and investors, however there are various risks associated with news trading.
Like any investment, there is always a risk, and news trading on the Forex market is no different. Though the potential profits are huge, the losses are also equally as large. The dangers of news trading come from the fact that a trade must be made quickly or else you are going to lose. If you are caught on the bad side of a trade, your money will be gone quicker than you can blink your eye. You will lose money so fast that there won’t even be time for you to manually close your trades, leaving you with nothing. Stop-loss orders are also potentially dangerous as there is a high probability of slippage because of the sudden price fluctuation.
The Key Currency:FOREX
The hostility of the less developed countries to the Group of Ten and its 'monopoly power' reflects at once their awareness and their intense resentment of this fact.
On the other hand the Group of Ten--- which itself includes some currencies in a minor key--- has not been all that effective in arriving at the kind of collective responsibility for the system that Montagu Norman and Benjamin Strong thought they had achieved in the 1920s, or that the 'key currency' school thought was achievable on the basis of latter-1930s' experience.
The fundamental reason has been that the overwhelming dominance of the dollar through most of the postwar II period has enabled the other currencies to coast intellectually on the basis of carping about the behavior of the United States, while concerning themselves less about the system as a whole than about their own position in it.
When the U.S. Administration finally tired of the burden of holding the umbrella for the rest and challenged them to display some genuine leadership out of the impasse that resulted, it was the United States that by good poker-playing exercised all the leadership that was displayed.
But whether skill in winning at poker redistributes the stakes in an economically desirable fashion is not a question to which economists have ever been willing to return an affirmative answer.
Since one key currency now exists by virtue of postwar II history and both the other alternatives will have to be created by deliberate agreement among sovereign national states at a considerable cost to themselves in terms of economic policy autonomy, there is a strong historically-based probability that the one-key-currency system, otherwise known as the dollar standard, will prevail.
An alternative outcome depends either on the mismanagement of the dollar continuing and being sufficiently offensive and disruptive to the other major countries to prompt them to a defensive establishment of a rival European currency; or on the responsibilities of the key currency role becoming sufficiently onerous to the U.S. Administration to prompt it to force the pace of evolution of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) system. 'Benign neglect' of the U.S. balance of payments by a President anxious for re-election points in the former direction; the current U.S desire for exchange rate freedom points in the other.
But inertia in the absence of crisis may carry the day. The confidence problem in a fixed exchange rate system in which reserve assets are gold, to a certain extent, same with currencies convertible into gold has two aspects: the possibility of loss of confidence in the ability of a particular country to maintain its existing exchange rate--- which may be speculation on either devaluation or revaluation; also true with the loss of confidence in the ability of the reserve currency country to maintain its exchange rate, which is inevitably speculation on a devaluation relative to gold or the other currencies in general.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
